Incentives & Economics

A friend called last week with a familiar complaint. He had built his workload inside AWS Nitro Enclaves, and he wanted out. His words, not mine: “Pretty easy to get in. Pretty costly to get up. Impossible to get out.” A friendly onboarding pipeline had generated his key for him and left it sitting right there in the console, and he honestly could not tell you whether it was his to take somewhere else. AWS ran the attestation. AWS decided, on every request, whether his own code was allowed to touch his own secrets. Then he asked the question that started this article. How do I port this to another provider? ...

Two postures have hardened around the cost of AI, and most leaders have already picked one without registering it as a choice. The first says zero dollars per token. Own the silicon, run the weights locally, drive the marginal cost of a query to nothing. Apple’s M3 through M5 put a capable model on a machine that fits in a backpack, NVIDIA’s GB10 desktop box puts a small token factory under the desk, and the appeal is clean: no meter, no vendor, no bill that grows every time the team does its job. ...

Yesterday a code editor sold for sixty billion dollars. SpaceX exercised an option it had struck back in April. The terms were unusually clean: buy Anysphere, the company behind the Cursor editor, outright for $60 billion in stock, or walk away and pay $10 billion just to partner. It bought. CBS reported the deal the same week SpaceX went public. Cursor leans heavily on Anthropic’s models today, and the new owner has already said it will drop its own models and Grok’s coding agent into that seat. ...

It was around 2000. I was running Legion across entire Class B ranges, watching open Windows shares scroll up the screen faster than I could read them. C$. ADMIN$. Whole NT4 boxes answering null sessions like a door with no lock and a welcome mat on the floor. You didn’t need a password. You needed curiosity and a free afternoon. The Microsoft of that era had no Patch Tuesday. No Security Response Center worth the name. Security was a feature request that lost to the ship date, every quarter, on purpose. The company that today runs one of the most disciplined vulnerability programs on the planet once shipped operating systems to hospitals and banks with the equivalent of the front door propped open. ...

Since 2023, I’ve been studying applied AI almost exclusively. I don’t pretend to be a data scientist or ML engineer. Honestly, I don’t think giving up more than twenty years of infrastructure, performance, and security engineering would be smart. I’d end up like a duck: swims, flies, and walks, but doesn’t outperform at any of them. It’s impossible not to get caught up in the vibe-coding thing. I’m not here to criticize anyone shipping and prototyping. A few months back, I heard one of the smartest things anyone’s said about AI, from Naval Ravikant. I’ve been listening to him for a few years now, and his takes are consistently good. I don’t remember the exact words, and I’m not going to chase videos or quotes to nail them down, but it was close to this: “There is no disruption caused by AI. The novelty we’re seeing is the abstraction and conversion of human language into computing language.” Brilliant. ...

Two in the morning, eighteen hours into the run. Seven LLM backends processing the same stream of GPU cluster anomalies. Same thermal cascades, same NVLink errors, same KV cache evictions. I’m watching the scoring dashboard update in real time and the numbers are breaking my assumptions faster than I can take notes. The $32-per-day model is getting the diagnosis wrong more often than a free one running on my workstation. ...

Meta’s Prometheus data center in New Albany, Ohio is scaling to 1.2 GW. To get there, they’re building behind-the-meter natural gas turbines — two 200 MW Socrates generation facilities, supplied by dedicated gas pipelines, isolated from the grid. In Virginia, the same story plays out with diesel generators, enough of them that it became the top legislative concern entering the 2026 session. The industry talks about PUE as if it were a verdict on environmental efficiency. It isn’t. PUE measures one envelope — the data center facility. Total facility power divided by IT equipment power. A PUE of 1.3 means 30% overhead for cooling, lighting, and support systems. That’s the metric everyone optimizes, the number that shows up in sustainability reports, the figure that earns applause at conferences. ...

Last Friday, the White House ordered every federal agency to stop using Anthropic products within six months. The Defense Secretary designated the company a “supply chain risk to national security” — a label normally reserved for foreign adversaries like Huawei or Kaspersky. Anthropic’s crime: they refused to remove two safety guardrails from Claude before deploying it on classified Pentagon networks. No AI for mass domestic surveillance of American citizens. No fully autonomous weapons without human oversight. ...

In Brazil, when advising a customer on endpoint security, there was a mental model we never said out loud. The technical discussion would cover detection rates, false positives, memory footprint — the usual. But underneath it ran a question that never made it into the RFP: who do you want knowing what you’re doing? Russians or Americans? Kaspersky was the default for most of the market — and not because of ideology. Norton and Symantec had spent years earning their reputation for turning Windows machines into molasses, and McAfee was McAfee. Kaspersky worked. It was lighter, faster, cheaper. The fact that its telemetry flowed to Moscow rather than Langley was a feature, not a bug, depending on which side of the table you sat on. ...

The Concorde burned one ton of fuel per passenger to cross the Atlantic. One hundred seats. Three and a half hours. Mach 2. The most advanced commercial aircraft ever built — and every engineer who saw it wanted to believe it was the future. The 747 did the same crossing in seven hours. Four hundred seats. A quarter of the fuel per passenger. No afterburners. No sonic boom. No government subsidies keeping it alive. ...

I see people everywhere anxious about whether AI will disrupt their jobs, their industries, their lives. I’ve always approached this with calm. Not indifference—calm. The future rarely sends advance notice, but it is always arriving. This isn’t news. It’s the human condition. A few years ago, I attended a keynote by Michio Kaku where he framed—perfectly, for me—the relationship between humanity and technological change. What follows is my version. I can’t claim novelty, and I’m not a domain expert in sociology or economics. I’m an infrastructure builder observing the same pattern from the inside. ...

A few years ago, I was having dinner with the Americas VP of a European energy supermajor — one of those companies that extracts oil from war zones, negotiates with regimes that don’t appear on polite lists, and operates in places where “political risk” means your assets might get nationalized or your personnel kidnapped. Seventy-plus countries. Active operations in Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Myanmar, Yemen. The kinds of places where security briefings come before breakfast. ...